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China Releases Air Pollution Data
A report in the June 14th issue of The New York Times examines the recent decision of the Chinese Government to release air quality reports for Beijing and 38 other Chinese cities. Although it appears that the Chinese collect, process, and analyze air quality data in ways that allow for incompleteness, misspecification, reliability, complexity, and error, nevertheless the data indicate that the air in Beijing and other Chinese cities is among the most polluted in the world, and contains the highest levels of pollution harmful to health.
The severity of the pollution is now acknowledged by the Chinese Government. This has produced several positive results. It has propelled environmental issues ont the agenda of this month's Chinese-American summit meeting. The Government's candor has helped create a new dynamic between itself and its people, based upon environmental consciousness. And a weekly barrage of frightening air quality data has generated popular support for otherwise unpalatable moves like shutting down inefficient state-owned factories and installing catalytic converters on autos.
According to the Times article, data quality problems arising from measuring air pollution are as pervasive as the air pollution itself. The data indicate air pollution is bad, but Chinese environmental scientists don't know exactly how bad. Their environmental metrology is complicated and confusing. The most serious pollutant in most Chinese cities is airborne particles, produced primarily by the burning of coal and by car exhausts. Heating with coal is ubiquitous in Beijing, making winter the worst season for air pollution. The article was written by Elisabeth Rosenthal and appears on page A18.
Common 'Language' Needed for Particle Physics?
According to an essay in the "Science Times" section of the June 16th New York Times, particle physicists are being overwhelmed by an enormous vocabulary of difficult words and phrases unique to their profession. Moreover, particle physics has a host of acronyms that describe experiments, experimental apparatus, and experimental sites, Times reporter Malcolm Browne concluded, while covering a recent particle physics conference in Japan.
Virtually all international meetings of physicists are conducted in English. This is very convenient for physicists who are native English speakers, but some presentations by non-native English speakers are almost incomprehensible. Language problems at international physics meetings are further complicated by poor handwriting, poor charts, diagrams, and exhibits, and poor presentations by the physicists. According to an increasing number of particle physicists, making particle physics accessible to themeselves and their colleagues poses a growing challenge. The article appears on page C4.
U.S. and China Try to Resolve Trade Data Dispute
A June 17th Wall Street Journal article reports that the United States and China are trying to resolve a dispute involving how the U.S.-China trade deficit is counted. Each side counts the deficit differently, leading to different views of bilateral trade relations that are at the heart of persistent tension between the two countries. The U.S. says that the deficit reached about $50 billion in 1997, the Chinese contend the deficit was only $16.4 billion.
Experts in both countries are working together to find a way of counting that both sides can agree on. The dispute arose because China ships many U.S.-bound goods through Hong Kong, but doesn't count all of them in its U.S.-China trade statistics. The U.S. does count Chinese imports shipped through Hong Kong, but doesn't count U.S. exports shipped to China through Hong Kong. Though Hong Kong is now legally part of China, its trade figures are tallied separately. If adjusted for the "Hong Kong factor," many economists think the deficit would have been about $32 billion in 1997. The report was written by Journal staff reporter Craig Smith, and appears on page A13.
On-Line Supermarket Coupons at a Cost: Privacy
According to a report in the June 18th issue of The Wall Street Journal, personalized supermarket coupons could be in your electronic mailbox soon, in exchange for information about your preferences and buying patterns. One major supermarket coupon company, Catalina Marketing Corp., is pioneering a program to let shoppers print their own discount coupons directly from the Internet. In exchange for information about preferences and buying patterns, Catalina sends supermarket customers a personalized selection of coupons every week by e-mail.
Supermarket customers log on to Catalina's on-line Web page (www.valupage.com) and fill out the boxes requesting the customer's zip code and preferred supermarket (the supermarket choices may not include the supermarket where the customer usually shops). About $40 of national brand coupons (which may or may not be for brands the customer usually buys) can be printed out on the customer's printer and redeemed at the supermarket. Answering a few more demographic and personal questions will get a consumer coupons more targeted to his or her lifestyle. In the latest variation, if you reveal the number of your supermarket discount shopping card you receive coupons pinpointed to the precise products and brands you buy. And a customer can also receive the coupons weekly by e-mail.
Catalina says the information it gathers is not attached to any individual's name. The company says it sells data to its coupon and marketing clients, but not to third party marketers. It promises users of its online service that it will respect their personal privacy. In testing the on-line coupon concept, Catalina found that 73% of consumers said that they were concerned about privacy, but 93% said that they would like to receive personalized coupons. The quality of supermarket customer information was not discussed in the article, which was written by Paulette Thomas and appears on page B1.
On-Line 'Surveys' Satisfy the Curious
A report in the June 18th issue of The New York Times examines a growing number of Web sites that allow Web users to design and conduct their own opinion polls - albeit without the statistical methodology and validity of most professional polls. Three Web sites where such polls are created and discused are: (www.apocalypse.org), (www.opendebate.com), and (www.virtua.com). The organizations who run these sites seek to centralize and formalize user-created polls. By providing greater exposure, excellent graphics, and using a wide range of topics, amateur pollsters are able to generate considerable interest and discussion. By contrast, surveys and polls conducted by the federal government and large polling organizations are usually deadly boring. The return rate for questionnaires mailed to households during the last U.S. decennial census was below 50% in many U.S. cities.
The Times concludes that while, on one hand there is a danger that the public will start taking the amateur pollsters' "data" seriously, on the other hand, these polls are no worse than talk show call-in polls, or printed mail-in "surveys" published in magazines. And, optimistically, such amateur poll sites might provide a window into what topics people are really interested in, as opposed to topics selected by professional pollsters and their commercial or political sponsors. The article was written by Pamela L. O'Connell and appears on page E8.