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Political Interests Influence 2000 Census
A front-page report in the April 12th issue of The New York Times indicates that the 2000 Census will be the most politically contentious in 80 years. Not since 1920 - when rural members of Congress were incensed that more people lived in cities than in rural areas - has a Census generated more debate in Congress.
According to the Times, the issue this time is the Census Bureau's plan to forego it's traditional method of trying to enumerate every person in the country. Instead, the bureau proposes to enumerate all the people in 90 percent of the households in each census tract (a geographical area consisting of about 1,700 households.) Using that data, bureau statisticians would try to estimate the number of people in the tract who had not been enumerated. The bureau would then check for accuracy by conducting a survey of 750,000 households nationwide and making any needed adjustments to the final total.
The statistical sampling plan was prompted by the 1990 Census, which cost $2.6 billion and according to estimates by the Census Bureau and the National Research Council, missed 10 million people and double-counted 6 million. Most Republicans vigorously oppose the plan for sampling, arguing that it violates Article 1 of the U.S. Constitution, which calls for an "actual enumeration" each decade. Republicans also contend that the Census Bureau's sampling plans are much too complex for the Bureau to perform successfully.
But the sampling proposal is is staunchly supported by many Democrats who maintain that it is the only way to get an accurate tally of minorities - particularly inner-city blacks and Hispanic migrant workers, who aare traditionally the hardest to count. Both sides say the Census Bureau's sampling method is likely to help Democrats by increasing the number of minorities who usually vote Democratic. Congressional Republicans are fighting sampling in Congress and in the courts. They and their political allies have filed two lawsuits opposing sampling on constitutional grounds.
According to the Times, the Census Bureau has been baffled and demoralized by this political warfare. And the Times also reports that the Clinton Administration has not made the census fight a strong priority. The report was written by Times staff journalist Steven Holmes.