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Supreme Court Mandates Census for Apportionment
On January 25th, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the official census for 2000, which will be used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives, must be conducted by traditional head count. The Court prohibited the statistical sampling that the Clinton Administration had planned to use to prevent millions of predominantly urban Americans from not being counted in the next census, as occurred in previous censuses.
Giving some solace to the Administration, the Court drew a distinction between the official census figures used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives among the 50 states, and any statistical adjustment of those figures for other purposes like state redistricting and the distribution of Federal money to the states. While Federal law bars sampling for apportionment, it permits and even requires statistical adjustment for other purposes. Census counts affect congressional district boundaries and the flow of federal money, drawing intense partisan scrutiny.
In concluding that Federal law prohibits sampling, the Court had no need to rule on a constitutional issue that was also in the case, the question of whether the Constitution's requirement of an "actual enumeration" makes the traditional head count mandatory. In the 5-4 decision, upholding a ruling last August by a special three-judge Federal District Court panel in Richmond, the Court split along ideological lines.
Thc Court's ruling complicates the 2000 Census. A full enumeration will cost considerably more than the sampling plan the Administration wanted, so Congress will have to come up with more money. A further complication is that the states have competing interests and do not line up along partisan lines. All 50 states, however, have laws or constitutional provisions requiring their state legislatures to use Federal census data in drawing legislative district boundaries. Articles about the Court's decsion appeared on the front page of The New York Times and other national newspapers.
U.S. Breast Cancer Data - Hope, Fear, Confusion
According to an article in the "Science Times" section of The New York Times on January 26th, women overestimate their risk of getting breast cancer, and also overestimate the odds that the disease will be fatal. Although more American women die each year of heart disease and lung cancer, there appears to be a universal dread of breast cancer. This dread of breast cancer apparently arises from the disfiguring surgery followed by an extended course of chemotherapy that is the usual course of treatment for the disease. In contrast, heart disease sounds like something women can live with.
Women also associate breast cancer with dying young. More women die of breast cancer in their mid-30's to mid-50's than heart disease. According to the article, early deaths among family and friends loom large in many women's memories. Well-meaning public health campaigns may have made some of the fears even worse than they should be. The prediction that one in eight women in the United States will evelop breast cancer is one of the most quoted and, to many women, one of the most alarming statistics ever promoted by the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society. The number is technically correct. But it is also confusing and misleading.
The one-in-eight statistic derives from large populations of women, studied from birth to death. But the figure doesn't mean that women have a one-in-eight chance of dying from breast cancer. A number of factors seem to increase the likelihood of contracting breast cancer. These include age, mother or sister with breast cancer, obesity, and alcohol use. Moreover, when breast cancer is treated early, before it can spread, 97 percent of patients are still alive five years later, according to the American Cancer Society. Among all women with the disease, at all stages, 50 percent to 60 percent survive 15 years. The death rate actually declined 5.6% from 1990 to 1994.
A companion article described the limitations of software available from the National Cancer Institute that estimates a woman's personal risk of developing breast cancer. This article also described strategies that doctors at several cancer centers utilize to reduce the incidence of women at unusually high risk. These strategies include extensive monitoring, using magnetic resonance imaging as well as mammograms. Both articles were written by Denise Grady and appear on pages D1 and D4.
'Sensor Fusion' - Combined Data for Increased Accuracy
A recently-granted U.S. patent encompasses technology that allows radar to become more precise by integrating different types of "returns" in much the way that a person or a cat integrates the perception of different senses. A cat, for example, will integrate information from auditory, visual, and tactile senses when hunting for mice.
The patented system integrates information from radar images with information from aircraft transponders - i.e., aircraft position with identification. With current civil aviation radar technology, an aircraft may not be exactly where it's radar picture shows it to be. Statistical models may not be precise enough for accurate prediction.
The research leading to the patent was sponsored by the U.S. Navy. The patent (5,850,625) was granted to Accurate Automation Corporation of Chattanooga, Tennessee. [Editor's Note: Obviously, each type of sensor in such systems must be capable of supplying high quality data.] A description of the patent was published in The New York Times (page C6) on January 25th.
Briefly Noted
NASD Urges Brokers to Provide Better Data
The National Association of Securities Dealers has issued guidelines for brokerage firms to educate customers about trading in volatile markets. The guidelines also call for brokerage firms to consider additional disclosures related to initial public offerings of stock and to alert Internet investors about problems trading during periods of high market volatility. The report appeared on page C8 of The New York Times on January 27th.
FCC Proposes Low-Power FM Stations
On January 28th, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission proposed new rules that would allow thousands of low-power stations (10-1000 watts) to share the FM broadcast band with commercial and public interest broadcasters. Commercial broadcasters immediately expressed concern about possible radio interference problems. The report appears on page C1 of The New York Times.
Japanese TV Series Mixes Fact and Fiction
A popular Japanese TV "documentary" series about two young Japanese men "hitchhiking" from South Africa to Norway so throughly mixed factual and fictional exploits, according to The Wall Street Journal, that Japenese viewers were completely confused about what the hitchhikers had actually accomplished. The report appeared on the front page of the Journal on January 27th.
Early Financial News Releases Cause Concern
An article about the inadvertent release of Xerox's Corporation's fourth quarter earnings calls into question the common practice of corporations providing sensitive market-moving information to news services days before the news services distribute the information to the public. With the growth in information technology, such practices may result in future market confusion and "insider trading." The article appeared in The Wall Street Journal (page C1) on January 27th.
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Comments: dqemail@aol.com (1999-01-24)