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Data Quality Issue: Is Student Drug Use Leveling Off?
A report in the December 21st issue of The New York Times suggests that, based upon several national surveys, student drug use in the United States may be leveling off. The report, which was written by Times staff reporter Christopher Wren, examines two surveys of teenagers in the United States. The first survey, called "Monitoring the Future, " found that 29.4 % of eighth graders tried an illegal drug in 1997, versus 31.2 % in 1996 and 28.5 % in 1995. The Monitoring the Future survey annually tracks drug use by successive cohorts (peer groups) in the 8th, 10th, and 12th grades. Unfortunately, not all drug use moved in the same direction, nor did all grade levels show the same shifts. The survey showed a slight decrease in marijuana use among 8th graders, but marijuana use was up among older teenagers (about 90 % of teenagers who use drugs reported smoking marijuana). The Times reports another (unnamed) recent Government survey also found drug use slightly down among younger adolescents.
From a data quality perspective, the slight decrease (0.5%) in marijuana use among 8th graders could have been caused by sampling error. The article appears on page 24.
'Undetermined' Deaths Pose Continuing D.C. Mystery
According to a front page article in the December 22nd issue of The Washington Post, the rate at which people between the ages of 15 and 44 die under circumstances that have never been fully determined by the medical examiner's office or police department is the highest in the United States (an average of three people a month). The city's tendency to label deaths "undetermined" was evident earlier this year with the discovery of two women's bodies in a Northwest D.C. neighborhood. The medical examiner initially was unable to determine how or why the women died. Only after a third woman was found strangled in November on the same block were all three cases classified as homicides.
According to the Post, it is likely that some homicides were never declared by the medical examiner and consequently never investigated by the police. The data quality implications are that the reported homicide rate is not what it should be. The Post article states that, from 1984 to 1994, at least 1,800 people ages 15 to 44 died under circumstances that were not established. This data was reported to the National Center for Health Statistics. When asked about this figure by the Post, the D.C. Department of Health spent 3 weeks reviewing the death files since 1990. It concluded that the deaths of 276 people ages 15 to 44 had been labeled undetermined as to manner of death. That means the authorities found out what killed people, - for example a fall - but could not determine whether the cause of death was a murder, suicide, or accident.
The Post concludes that a combination of factors is responsible for the high rate of undetermined deaths in Washington. The medical examiner's office has been historically conservative when making judgements about a cause of death. Both the police department's homicide division and the medical examiner's office have problems functioning effectively. The medical examiner's office has serious technological and professional inadequacies. According to the Post, as of now there there is no effort in place to review the status of undetermined cases over the years. The article was written by staff writer Gabriel Escobar.
Data Airlines....Data Blimps....Satellites....Fiber-Optic Cable Networks....
According to a Wall Street Journal report on December 24th, the need to move cascades of digital information at blistering speed is spurring an array of sometimes oddball schemes for supplementing the world's overflowing phone lines, cable, and satellites. Written by Journal staff reporter Quentin Hardy, the report details several, of many, brainstorms that have resulted from a worldwide data deluge, largely due to the Internet.
A "data airliner" is something like a flying cellular phone tower. A "data airliner" is a high altitude long-operation aircraft...which typically flies data relay missions over a metropolitan area. Packed with computers and radio-transmission equipment, one data airliner can transfer more than 10 megabits of data per second. Mission length is typically eight hours.
A "data blimp" is an unmanned balloon that cruises at 70,000 feet. Present versions can relay data at two megabits to 10 megabits per second.
Another project seeks to build a "super-Internet," stringing 192,000 miles of fibre-optic cable around the world, at a cost of $14.7 billion. A number of other projects seek to employ low-earth-orbit (LEO) satellites, ranging from a 64 to a 288 satellite system. According to "experts" in the field of data relay, future demand will peak at about 5 megabits per second, about what's needed to send and receive HDTV, stereo sound, and data. The report appears on page B1.