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Data Support Anti-Cancer Diet Reduces Risk
An article in the December 1st issue of The New York Times's "Health & Fitness" section challenged the claim of NBC medical correspondent, Dr. Bob Arnot, that a certain diet can "prevent" breast cancer. The premise of Dr. Arnot's best selling book, The Breast Cancer Prevention Diet, - that adopting a diet rich in soy, flaxseed, and fish oils can prevent breast cancer - has been soundly denounced by breast cancer researchers and patient advocates as promising something it cannot possibly deliver.
Faced with an onslaught of criticism, Dr. Arnot now says that he should have used the words "risk reduction" rather than "prevention" in his book title. Critics say that Dr. Arnot's book overextends laboratory findings that have yet to be confirmed in women.
But Dr. Arnot wasn't wrong in suggesting that diet plays an important role in reducing the risk of cancer, including breast cancer. The American Cancer Society estimates that diet is a primary factor in a third of cancer deaths. That estimate is derived from thousands of studies of people world-wide and is supported by results of cell tests and animal tests.
The studies suggest that a reorientation of American eating habits - to emphasize fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, while minimizing red meat, saturated fat, and alcohol - can significantly reduce the likelihood of developing most common cancers. This is the same diet that studies have shown can help to counter heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity. Unlike Dr. Arnot's low-carbohydrate diet, the recomended anti-cancer diet is rich in complex carbohydrates and fiber. The article was written by Jane Brody and appears on page D6.
Data Suggest Voter Fraud in New York is Rare
A report in the December 3rd issue of The New York Times examined allegations of voter fraud in the November elections and concluded that voter fraud involving the names of deceased persons is rare.
New York Republicans challenged the 21,000 vote lead of the Democratic candidate for Attorney General of New York. But an examination of computer files by Times reporters turned up no pattern of vote fraud. Moreover, the Times investigation found that the New York City Board of Elections made a considerable effort to clean the voter rolls and remove the names of ineligible voters.
The Times compared the rolls of all voters registered in Manhattan last year with a list provided by the U.S. Social Security Administration of the 17.4 million Americans who have died since 1990. The Times found that not only had no one in their sample had voted illegally, but several persons who were reported to be deceased by the Social Security Administration were alive and voting. According to the Times, about 12% of registered Manhatttan voters are deemed ineligible to vote because they have died, moved, or registered at multiple addresses.
Acording to other reports in the New York news media, findings by Times journalists persuaded the Republican candidate for state Attorney General, Dennis Vacco, to concede defeat. The report was written by Josh Barbanel and appears on page A27.
U.S. Police Need Crime Counting Standards
An editorial page report in The Wall Street Journal on December 3rd challenges the methods police departments in the United States use to count crimes. According the article's author, Lawrence Sherman, who is chairman of the University of Maryland's department of criminology and criminal justice, police departments often fail to follow the Federal Bureau of Investigation's national standards on crime classification. U.S. police departments have recently been criticized for not taking written reports on all crimes or of downgrading reports to less serious offenses.
According to the Journal, criminologists have for many years known that police reporting is a mess. No two agencies classify crime in exactly the same way. Many offenses lie on the boundary between two different crime types. The police overrate the seriousness of some offenses. The behavior that constitutes a criminal offense (attempted rape, for example) varies widely among jurisdictions. Legislators are increasingly making behavior that was previously annoying or innocuous into criminal offenses. (In criminology, this is referrred to "progressive criminalizaton of human behavior").
Dr. Sherman advocates a system of national crime-counting standards, independent audits for every police agency receiving federal funds (almost all of them), and effective oversight for crime measures and measurements in police agencies to prevent "data doctoring" and other forms of cheating. The article appears on page A22.
'Road Rage' May Not Exist
A report in the November 29th issue of The Washington Post challenges the assumption that there is an epidemic of "road rage" - aggressive driving by angry drivers of motor vehicles. The Post contends that although the police are writing more traffic tickets, there is no statistical evidence to support the public perception that aggressive driving is growing or making roads more perilous, according to traffice safety researchers, the insurance industry, and law enforcement officials. In fact, federal highway safety data indicate that America's roads have never been safer, with the rates of traffic deaths, injuries, and crashes all in a steady decline.
According to the Post, many traffic safety analysts believe the perception of rising danger on the highway - as measured by opinion polls - ballooned out of proportion because of a combination of factors like a barrage of media reports stemming from a few bad incidents, an enthusiastic response from a few police officials, and the invention of a catchy label: road rage.
The most frightening examples of true road rage, such as the driving duel that killed three people on the George Washington Parkway (near Washington D.C.) three years ago, and touched off a media frenzy, remain exceedingly rare. There is nothing in traffic accident statistics that indicates aggressive driving is increasing. Moreover, there is a difference of opinion about what the term "aggressive driving" means. Some say it means any misbehavior behind the steering wheel. Others say that because a driver changes lanes suddenly without signalling doesn't mean he or she is about to perpetuate and act of road rage.
The lack of a clear definition of "road rage" and "aggressive driving" troubles statisticians, insurance actuaries, and others who rely on exact data and deifinitions. According to the Post, the lack of clear definitions does not often trouble law enforcement, the media, legislators, and other "authorities." The article was written by Post staff writers Patricia Davis and Leef Smith, and appears on page B1.
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